For years, there has been no apparent way out of the authoritarian regime that has led Venezuela down a dark path from socialist experiment into humanitarian crisis. That may have changed on Friday when, just one day after President Nicolas Maduro was sworn in for a second term, little-known opposition leader Juan Guaidó, announced he was ready to take his job. Now, many in Venezuela and beyond hope Guaidó can revive a deflated opposition movement and restore Venezuela’s democracy.
Who is Juan Guaidó and why does he say he could become president of Venezuela?
An industrial engineer and one-term lawmaker for the Popular Will party, Guaidó became head of the opposition-held parliament, the National Assembly in early January. While Maduro stripped that legislative body of its powers in 2017, it still meets and is recognized by most countries. According to the Venezuelan constitution, the National Assembly leader becomes president whenever there is a “vacuum of power” within the country. Guaidó claims Maduro’s second term, won through rigged elections in May 2018, constitutes such a vacuum. (The vote was widely recognized as illegitimate because of a boycott by the opposition and claims of vote-rigging. The U.S. and E.U. imposed sanctions, while 14 mostly Latin American countries recalled their ambassadors.)
The charismatic 35 year-old has unified a divided opposition with “a new narrative on how they can reach a democratic transition,” says Diego Moya-Ocampos, a Venezuela expert at risk analysts IHS Markit. Guaidó has stopped short of naming himself interim president but has pledged to do so if protests show he has the people’s support and if the military backs him. Once in office, he would have to call fresh elections in 30 days.
How did Venezuela become an autocracy?
The architect of Venezuela’s revolutionary socialist model, President Hugo Chávez, died of cancer in 2013, handing power to Maduro, his chosen successor. The following year, a drop in global fuel prices sent Venezuela’s oil-backed economic model into crisis, prompting goods shortages and mass protests. Determined to maintain his grip on power, Maduro has grown increasingly authoritarian, repressing protests with violence, imprisoning political opponents and increasing his control over the media.
Acute shortages of food and other imported goods have lead to widespread hunger, with the average Venezuelan losing 24 pounds in 2017. The lack of basic medicine has crippled the health system, while violent crime rates have spiked. More than 2.3 million people have fled the country since 2014.
How has Maduro responded to Guaidó?
Intelligence forces detained Guaidó on Jan. 13, only to release him again 45 minutes later. Communications Minister Jorge Rodríguez later blamed rogue agents acting without authorization.
The episode may suggest the government is divided about how to deal with the threat Guaidó poses. “Clearly someone gave the order to arrest him, and then someone in the upper ranks said: No, this is not a good idea,” Moya-Ocampos says, adding that visibly attacking Guaidó could backfire. “He’s actually not that well known nationwide and victimizing him could increase media attention and position him as a leader.”
Whatever is going on inside the government, the arrest was a reminder of how precarious Guaidó’s position is against a regime with absolute power over the police and military. His own mentor, former Popular Will leader Leopoldo López, has been detained or under house arrest since 2014 for opposing the government. Moya–Ocampos says Guaidó will likely face the same fate “if he becomes a threat to their stability.”
What does the international community say?
Regional powers including Colombia and Chile have called Guaidó to express their support and Brazil’s new far-right president Jair Bolsonaro went so far as to recognize him as Venezuela’s president on Saturday. In the U.S., Vice-President Mike Pence praised Guaidó’s “courageous decision” to challenge Maduro, while Florida senator Marco Rubio called on the government to formally recognize him.
Why do the military support Maduro and could they switch sides?
Guaidó recognizes that he needs the armed forces to switch sides if he is to take power. That seems unlikely. “The military have little incentive to withdraw their support for Maduro because it means sacrificing the economic and political influence they currently enjoy,” Moya-Ocampos says. Under the regime, the military has a role in controlling Venezuela’s oil services, ports, infrastructure and the import of basic goods. Senior officers will also worry that regime change would mean they are held to account for human rights abuses committed during the often violent repression of protests in recent years.
Venezuela’s powerful counter-military intelligence service, the DGCIM, also help prevent dissent within the forces by keeping officers under surveillance and weeding out troublemakers.
Does Guaidó have a chance at taking power?
Guaidó is calling for mass protests to show public support for him to take over the presidency. “My friends, the game has changed now,” he told a rally in the coastal town of Caraballeda after his release from detention. “The people are out in the streets.”
Small-scale protests happen on a daily basis in Venezuela over food shortages and labor rights. But if demonstrations become large enough to overwhelm security forces’ ability contain them, that could trigger “a break in the chain of command within the military,” Moya-Ocampos says. “Then it is possible they could withdraw their support for Maduro.”
A key protest is scheduled for January 23 – the anniversary of the overthrow of dictator Marcos Pérez Jiménez in 1958 after a popular uprising that unified civilians and the military. But with protesters risking fierce state repression and the military still in a tight alliance with the government, it’s not clear whether history can repeat itself.
