The stage will be the smallest — and whitest — so far. Only six candidates qualified this time and none of them are people of color: former Vice President Joe Biden, former South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete Buttigieg, Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar, Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, billionaire executive Tom Steyer and Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren.
The DNC raised the debate qualifications since last month’s debate: candidates had until 11:59 p.m. on Jan. 10 to get at least 5% in four DNC-approved polls or at least 7% in two early-state polls (Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and/or Nevada). They also needed at least 225,000 unique donors with a minimum of 1,000 unique donors in at least 20 states, U.S. territories or Washington D.C.
The debate will have three moderators: CNN political anchor Wolf Blitzer, CNN political correspondent Abby Phillip, and The Register‘s chief political correspondent Brianne Pfannenstiel.
Given recent developments — articles of impeachment are likely headed to the Senate, the state of U.S.-Iran relations, Australia’s raging bushfires, and tensions within the Democratic field — they’ll be plenty to talk about.
“We’re down to the end here. That means there’s pressure on everybody to try to show off, to be smart, to point out their opponents’ weaknesses,” Stuart Rothenberg, a political analyst and senior editor of Inside Elections with Nathan Gonzales, tells TIME. “But you don’t want to go too nasty right at the end here. You don’t want to look mean spirited. That’s not Midwestern nice.”
How will tomorrow’s impeachment vote affect the debate?
On Wednesday, the House of Representatives will vote on sending the articles of impeachment to the Senate, setting in motion a Senate trial on whether or not to convict President Donald Trump and remove him from office. The House will also vote on which representatives will serve as House mangers, the effective prosecutors in the trial who lay out the case for the President’s conviction.
There were concerns earlier in the week that the Senate trial might conflict with the debate. When the trial begins every senator must return to Washington D.C. to act as jurors, including the three set to appear on stage. Two-thirds of the Senate must vote to convict the President for him to be removed, which has never happened in the history of the U.S.
DNC chairman Tom Perez spoke about this possibility on Jan. 7. “Democrats and our senators can walk and chew gum,” Perez told MSNBC. “Obviously, if there’s a trial on the 14th, then we’ll move the debate. If there’s not, then we’re going to have the debate. At the moment, all systems are go, and so we’re going to move forward.”
The candidates on stage will likely address the upcoming impeachment vote, especially the three senators who may have to return to D.C. during the last crucial weeks before the Iowa caucuses while the other candidates continue to campaign. But all the candidates support the impeachment proceedings and likely won’t linger on the topic.
As Rachel Paine Caufield, a professor of political science at Drake University, tells TIME, “I have not heard a lot of talk about impeachment. It’s not top of mind for a lot of Iowa voters.” Caufield leads the political visitor team on campus and is helping organize the debate.
Will Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders clash onstage?
The two political allies — and reported friends — have largely avoided fighting thus far in the primary; but tonight’s debate might change that. Sanders and Warren have recently clashed in the press, a phenomenon that may continue as they both vie for the party’s left-wing. As Rothenberg tells TIME, when it comes to expanding their appeal he thinks “Sanders’ problem is Warren and Warren’s problem is Sanders.”
On Saturday, Politico reported that the Sanders’ campaign gave volunteers talking points that said Warren brings “no new bases into the Democratic Party” and “people who support her are highly-educated, more affluent people who are going to show up and vote Democratic no matter what.” The Sanders campaign did not give a comment to Politico but also did not deny the script existed.
On Sunday, Warren reportedly told NBC News, “I was disappointed to hear that Bernie is sending his volunteers out to trash me.. Bernie knows me and has known me for a long time. He knows who I am, where I come from, what I have worked on and fought for and the coalition and grassroots movement we are trying to build. Democrats want to win in 2020 we all saw the impact of the factionalism in 2016 and we can’t have a repeat of that.”
When asked about the script, Sanders reportedly said, “I got to tell you, I think this is a little bit of a media blowup, that kind of wants conflict.” He added that “Elizabeth Warren is a very good friend of mine… We have worked together in the Senate for years. Elizabeth Warren and I will continue to work together, we will debate the issues… No one is going to trash Elizabeth Warren.”
Media reports about the two continued into the week. On Monday, Warren said that Sanders told her in 2018 that a woman couldn’t win the presidency, confirming earlier reports that had come out that day.
“Among the topics that came up was what would happen if Democrats nominated a female candidate,” Warren said in a statement. “I thought a woman could win; he disagreed. I have no interest in discussing this private meeting any further because Bernie and I have far more in common than our differences on punditry.”
Sanders denies he said this.
